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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.